November 5, 2024 | Constella Intelligence

Potential Cybersecurity Threats to the 2024 U.S. Election: Voter Database Leaks

Laura Bruck on November 5, 2024

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election takes place, cybersecurity analysts are on high alert, warning of voter database leaks. They are warning of an increasingly complex landscape that could jeopardize voter data security and election integrity due to voter database leaks. The face-off between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has intensified the focus on ensuring that electoral systems remain secure and resilient against potential cyberattacks.

It is crucial to protect against breaches, leaks, and disinformation campaigns that could influence public trust and democratic outcomes. Drawing insights from Constella Intelligence, this analysis examines the specific risks and incidents shaping the current election season.

U.S. Voter Data Leaks: A Persistent Threat

The United States has become a major target for voter data leaks, experiencing significant breaches that expose a wide range of personal information. Moreover, voter data from these breaches is being actively traded on deep and dark web forums, posing an ongoing risk to voter privacy and security.

Constella Intelligence’s findings show that U.S. voter data leaks account for approximately 78% of all voter data circulating on the dark web, underscoring the nation’s unique vulnerabilities stemming from its decentralized electoral system and vast voter data infrastructure. In the U.S. alone, 23 states have suffered data breaches, impacting regions nationwide and exposing significant weaknesses in the protection of sensitive voter information.

Key examples include Florida, Texas, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Given that there are 50 states in the United States, this means that approximately 46% of states have been affected by voter data breaches, reflecting the widespread and systemic nature of these vulnerabilities.

Notable incidents since 2020 illustrate the scope of these breaches:

Oklahoma: As shown in the previous image, a dark web forum post offered the 2024 Oklahoma voter list, including absentee voters, with instructions for accessing sensitive information for political purposes.
Florida: Multiple significant leaks have affected Florida, including incidents in April 2020 and March 2022. These repeated exposures highlight the challenges in securing voter information in large states with complex voter registration systems and higher volumes of data, which increase their vulnerability to breaches.
Wisconsin: A 2020 data leak compromised millions of voters, including such personal information as emails, names, phone numbers, and full addresses, showing how even isolated breaches can undermine public trust and voter security.
Other States: States like Oklahoma, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Delaware, Texas, and Alaska have also reported leaks, some of which date back as far as 2013. These incidents highlight the systemic difficulties in securing voter data across state lines.

Of the 23 affected states, voter data breaches have impacted both Democratic and Republican strongholds, as well as crucial swing states, highlighting the widespread nature of the threat regardless of political affiliation or regional importance.

Approximately 45% of Democratic-leaning states and 50% of Republican-leaning states have experienced data breaches.
Key swing states (5%) such as Florida, Georgia, or Pennsylvania have also been impacted. Swing states are particularly important because they often decide the overall outcome of elections, making any breach in these regions potentially more impactful.

This broad geographic spread means that voters from both parties, along with undecided voters, could be affected, potentially impacting voter turnout and election trust.

Emerging Cyber Threats and Manipulation Risks in the 2024 Election

In addition to voter data leaks, other cybersecurity threats could impact the 2024 U.S. election, such as disinformation campaigns, targeted voter suppression, and foreign interference. Constella Intelligence has identified several notable cases:

Campaign-Related Data Breaches (2024): A potential breach linked to Donald Trump’s campaign emails, allegedly involving foreign entities, exposed sensitive data. This underscores the risks posed by foreign influence operations.
National Public Data Leak (2024): A 2024 incident exposed million records, including sensitive information of million U.S. voters, highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities in protecting voter data.

RNC Leak (2017): This breach affected millions of voters, exposing personal details like birth dates and political affiliations. The data was used in predictive models, suggesting a risk of similar information being exploited to manipulate voter perceptions in the 2024 race.

These breaches illustrate the persistent risks of data misuse, identity theft, and election manipulation, each capable of eroding public trust in the democratic process.

Global Perspective: Voter Data Leaks Beyond the United States

Although U.S. voter data leaks are the most prevalent, other nations have also experienced significant breaches, especially during election cycles. Notable examples include:

Mexico: High-profile breaches occurred in 2017 and 2021, including targeted attacks on political organizations like the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN).
Israel: The 2020 elections saw a significant voter data breach, illustrating vulnerabilities even in nations with advanced cybersecurity frameworks.
The Philippines and India: The Philippines experienced a leak in 2016, and India faced a breach in 2024, demonstrating that populous democracies remain attractive targets for cybercriminals.
Other Nations: Countries like Iraq, Honduras, and Ukraine have also reported voter data breaches, underscoring the global nature of these threats.

Impact and Risks: Manipulating Election Outcomes Through Exposed Voter Databases

Beyond data leaks, the risks extend to manipulation tactics that leverage this exposed information. When voter databases are exposed, the personal and political information they contain can be weaponized to manipulate election outcomes in various ways:

Targeted Disinformation: Threat actors can use leaked data to send misleading messages, such as false voting locations or procedures, potentially causing voters to miss their opportunity to vote.
Voter Suppression Tactics: Leaked data allows cyber actors to discourage specific voters from participating by sending intimidating or misleading messages.
Identity Manipulation for Fraudulent Voting: Using personal details from leaked databases, malicious actors could impersonate registered voters to submit fraudulent ballots or alter voter rolls, causing confusion at polling stations.
Amplifying Polarization: By leveraging insights into voter preferences, cyber actors can create messages that heighten political divisions, influencing voters through emotional manipulation rather than factual discourse.

These tactics threaten not only individual privacy but also the integrity of the election process. When personal information is exposed, it can be used to manipulate voters, distort their perceptions, and ultimately undermine the fairness of the election. This direct impact on voter behavior erodes confidence in democratic institutions and the legitimacy of the results.

Threat Narratives: Misinformation and Disinformation Linked to Voter Data Leaks

Disinformation narratives pose significant threats because they can manipulate public perceptions and erode trust in democratic institutions. Constella Intelligence has identified several such narratives that could shape public opinion on the Dark Web:

Electoral Fraud: We have uncovered several threads discussing how leaked voter data could be used to manipulate voter intentions. Some threat actors allege the presence of ‘fake election officials’ in Pennsylvania, the removal of mailboxes in Luzerne County, and reports of ‘a box full of ballots’ discovered in Dade County, Florida. Additionally, claims about the purging of ineligible voters in Oklahoma, including deceased individuals, coupled with a previous voter list leak in the state, raise concerns about potential manipulation of the electoral system. These posts reflect the growing polarization among citizens and contribute to speculation around voter manipulation. However, we have not conducted further investigation into these claims.

Political Corruption: False narratives also target political figures, especially Kamala Harris and the Obamas. Harris is accused of plagiarism in her criminal justice book and collaborating with foreign countries to spy on Trump.

Russian Disinformation Campaign: The U.S. intelligence community has reported that Russian actors could be actively spreading false information to undermine public confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections, especially in key swing states. This includes creating fake videos and articles suggesting election fraud, ballot stuffing, and cyber attacks in places like Arizona, targeting specific candidates such as Kamala Harris.

Deep State: The idea of a ‘deep state’ aiming to control the country and silence opposition is frequently repeated. Steve Bannon, for example, is portrayed as a ‘political prisoner.’ Claims also suggest that this ‘deep state’ controls the media and censors information that could expose its actions.

QAnon Conspiracy Theories: Some narratives align with QAnon conspiracy theories, such as mentions of ‘Agenda 47’ and references to Q. These theories, which speak of a satanic cabal controlling the world, are popular among some right-wing groups in the U.S. and often intersect with narratives about electoral fraud and political corruption.

These narratives significantly threaten democratic stability by promoting misinformation, eroding public trust, and influencing voter behavior. Data from voter databases could further be used to create targeted misinformation campaigns, aimed at voters who are already inclined to believe these narratives, thus deepening their impact on democratic processes.

Recommendations for Securing Voter Data and Upholding Electoral Integrity

In response to the rise in voter database breaches, Constella Intelligence recommends proactive measures for citizens to safeguard their data:

Understand Your Digital Footprint: Stay informed about the personal information that is publicly accessible, including voter data and details from breaches like the NPD leak. By being aware of what information is exposed, you can take steps to protect yourself from threat actors who may attempt to exploit this data, especially during sensitive periods like Election Day.

Enable Two-Factor Authentication (2FA): Strengthen account security by using 2FA, which makes unauthorized access more difficult.

Be Mindful of Social Media Posts: Exercise caution with what you share or read on social media, as AI tools now make it easier than ever to create convincing fake content. Threat actors can exploit personal information or posts to manipulate narratives, spread disinformation, or target individuals during critical times like Election Day.

Be Cautious of Phishing Attempts: On Election Day, be especially wary of unsolicited messages claiming to provide election updates or voter information. Avoid clicking on links or downloading attachments, as scammers frequently use these tactics to steal personal data or spread disinformation during critical events like elections.

Stay vigilant against potential threats, from voter data breaches to disinformation, and take steps to protect your personal information. As you head to the polls, remember the importance of safeguarding our democratic process. Enjoy your Election Day, and best wishes to you all, America!

The Future of Identity Protection: Real-Time Threats and Scams

Alberto Casares on November 5, 2024

In today’s digital landscape, protecting your identity from real-time threats is more critical than ever. As a cybersecurity expert, I’ve seen an evolving spectrum of threats that go far beyond traditional identity theft. From classic dark web doxing to the advent of fullz—full identity kits sold for a few dollars—threat actors are leveraging these methods for a new breed of real-time scams, amplified by cutting-edge technology.

Recently, a project by Anh Phu Nguyen and Caine Ardayfio demonstrated the capability to integrate facial recognition technology with Meta’s smart glasses, allowing instant identification of strangers. This development marks a significant leap from the traditional static forms of identity theft into real-time exploitation, where personal information is weaponized in the moment.

Classic Doxing and Fullz on the Dark Web

For decades, doxing and the sale of fullz (complete identity kits) have been staple methods of cybercriminals on the dark web. Doxing involves collecting and publicizing personal information such as home addresses, phone numbers, and social media profiles, often with the intent to embarrass, harass, or intimidate. OSINT tools (Open-Source Intelligence) allow attackers to scrape social media profiles, public databases, and breached datasets to compile detailed profiles on their victims. Once exposed, this data is used for targeted harassment or extortion.

Meanwhile, fullz provide a more comprehensive set of personal details, typically including social security numbers, financial data, and other sensitive information that can be exploited for identity theft. The sale of fullz on dark web marketplaces has enabled identity theft and financial fraud on a massive scale. For a relatively small fee, threat actors can purchase a victim’s entire identity, making it easy to perform account takeovers, create fake profiles, or apply for credit in the victim’s name.

In the past, these methods were effective but static. Attackers could steal and use personal data long after it was exposed. Today, however, advancements in technology have transformed these identity theft techniques into dynamic, real-time threats.

Real-Time Identity Exploitation: The New Era of Scams

The rise of facial recognition technology combined with wearable devices, like Meta’s smart glasses, introduces a new dimension to identity theft. By pairing this real-time data collection with pre-existing fullz or other doxing techniques, threat actors can instantly exploit an individual’s identity on the fly.

In this I-XRAY demonstration, Meta’s smart glasses were modified to scan faces in public, instantly cross-referencing them with public social media data and possibly with compromised identity information. Imagine walking down the street, unaware that someone can identify you, access your data, and target you with personalized scams—all in real time. This shift turns identity theft into a real-time, hyper-targeted activity.

Here’s how this modern version of doxing and scamming might unfold:

Real-time recognition: A malicious actor equipped with facial recognition on smart glasses could walk through crowded public spaces and instantly identify individuals based on a match with their leaked photos from social media or other sources. This is no longer hypothetical; the proof-of-concept has already been demonstrated.

Instant exploitation: Once an individual is identified, scammers could access their leaked fullz from the dark web, providing them with a detailed set of personal information. They could then approach the target in real-time, pretending to know them, creating a social engineering scenario where the victim believes the scammer is a legitimate acquaintance or authority figure.

On-the-spot phishing: Imagine being approached by someone who knows your full name, email, address, and the last few digits of your social security number. When they ask you to verify some information the victim could easily fall into the trap of handing over even more sensitive information—like bank account details—without realizing they’ve been scammed until it’s too late.

The Role of AI in Amplifying Real-Time Threats

AI plays an integral role in the future of identity scams. It allows for the rapid analysis and deployment of identity data, enabling new, sophisticated scams that were previously unimaginable. Here are several ways AI can enhance these real-time threats:

AI-Powered Deepfakes: Threat actors can combine AI-generated deepfakes with real-time data to impersonate individuals in both video and audio formats. By using AI to craft believable but fake messages or phone calls, scammers can extort or deceive people more convincingly than ever before.
Automated Identity Theft at Scale: AI tools can automate the collection and correlation of personal data across multiple sources—social media, leaked data, and public records—faster than any human could. This allows threat actors to assemble profiles on victims quickly, accelerating identity fraud.
Behavioral Analysis and Predictive Attacks: AI can analyze online behaviors to predict the types of scams most likely to succeed on a given target. For example, someone frequently searching for job opportunities could be targeted with a fake job offer, exploiting the victim’s immediate needs.

Insights from Experts: Combating Modern Threats

As highlighted previously, cybersecurity in the age of AI and real-time technologies requires an updated approach. The reliance on static data protection strategies, such as password managers or even two-factor authentication, is no longer sufficient. We need to implement dynamic identity monitoring, where AI-driven systems track unusual behavior related to your digital presence in real-time.

How Constella is Protecting Your Identity

At Constella, we are dedicated to staying ahead of evolving threats by leveraging cutting-edge AI technologies and continuous monitoring to provide comprehensive identity protection. Our unique approach not only covers traditional dark web monitoring but also focuses on a broader range of sources across the surface web, ensuring a proactive stance against emerging scams and data leaks. Here’s how we’re tackling the future of identity theft:

Real-Time Identity Alerts: Our system is designed to provide real-time alerts when personal information is exposed across both the surface web, data brokers, and the dark web. Unlike traditional solutions that focus solely on the dark web, Constella offers a multi-source approach. This comprehensive coverage allows us to detect threats before they escalate, offering early warnings on a broader scale than any single-source monitoring service.

Advanced Dark Web Monitoring: We continuously scan the dark web to detect any exposure of your personal information, whether it has been compromised by infostealers or exposed through data breaches. Our unique approach involves not just scraping the dark web but correlating this data with surface web activities, giving you a more holistic view of your identity exposure. This enables a faster response to potential threats before they result in fraud or exploitation.

AI-Driven ScamGPT: Leveraging our proprietary AI technology, ScamGPT simulates potential scams that you may be targeted by using your own exposed personal information. This proactive approach allows us to train you before threat actors attempt a real attack, helping you recognize and avoid personalized phishing schemes, social engineering attempts, and other forms of exploitation. By generating potential scam scenarios based on your specific data profile, we ensure you are better prepared for what’s coming, long before the attackers strike.

Surface of Attack Mapping: Constella’s unique AI technology creates a detailed view of your real surface of attack, analyzing how your compromised information could be used against you. Using algorithms developed in collaboration with law enforcement agencies (LEAs), we connect the dots in the same way threat actors do, identifying all possible avenues they could exploit to target you. This approach allows you to see your vulnerabilities from the perspective of an attacker, enabling you to take targeted actions to secure those areas before they become active threats.

By integrating these advanced tools and methodologies, Constella provides a comprehensive identity protection solution designed to stay one step ahead of modern identity theft techniques. Our AI-driven insights ensure that you are equipped to defend against both current and future threats, safeguarding your personal information in an ever-changing cyber landscape.